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Parana vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

Parana
Parana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oeste
Oeste
6/1/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 6Durival Britto e Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Parana49%
×Draw28%
Oeste23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parana
1.34
Oeste
0.81

Parana creates 65% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 69 away

creates per match

Parana
1.00
Oeste
0.99

allows per match

Parana
0.64
Oeste
1.68

finishing

Parana+0.00on par
Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana ↓

Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Parana or draw
77%
Parana or Oeste
72%
Draw or Oeste
51%

Winning margin

Parana wins by 2+
23%
Oeste wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Parana 1+ goals
74%
Parana 2+ goals
39%
Parana 3+ goals
15%
Oeste 1+ goals
56%
Oeste 2+ goals
19%
Oeste 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Parana (draw refunded)
68%
Oeste (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana attack 1.00 + Oeste defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oeste attack 0.99 + Parana defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Parana scores more
49%
level
28%
Oeste scores more
23%

Parana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Matheus CavichioliOesteOeste · G
8.4

Match Events

25'
Maracás
28'
Eduardo Gabriel
28'
Cicinho
46'
Salomão← Thiaguinho
59'
João Pedro
60'
Bruno Rodrigues← Matheus Anjos
63'
Bruno Lopes← Roberto
68'
Bruno Paraíba
72'
Gabriel Vasconcelos← Bruno Paraíba
74'
Rodrigo Carioca← Jenison
76'
Salomão
81'
Lidio
86'
Caio Rangel← Ramon
90'
Rodrigo Carioca
90'
Bruno Lopes
90'
Matheus Cavichioli

Possession

65%Parana

Shots

19Parana

Pass accuracy

57%Parana

Statistics

ParanaOeste
Overview
65%Possession35%
19Total Shots13
8Corners4
14Fouls17
Shots
19Total Shots13
6On Target0
10Off Target8
3Blocked5
9Inside Box4
10Outside Box9
Passing
65%Possession35%
495Total Passes267
420Accurate Passes173
85%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls17
3Yellow Cards7
0Offsides2

Serie B: Parana 0–0 Oeste

Parana and Oeste drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 1, 2019.

Parana controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Durival Britto e Silva in Curitiba.