Oeste 1–1 Parana: Result & Stats | Serie C

Oeste

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Parana

Kalil 7'

Vinícius Guarapuava 62'

7/23/2021

Serie C · Round 9Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Oeste41%

×Draw32%

Parana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchParana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.83

Oeste

1.07

Parana

0.83

Oeste creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

0.82

creates per match

0.56

1.09

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Oeste

0.82

Parana

0.56

allows per match

Oeste

1.09

Parana

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Parana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

72%

Oeste or Parana

68%

Draw or Parana

59%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

16%

Parana wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

66%

Oeste 2+ goals

29%

Oeste 3+ goals

9%

Parana 1+ goals

56%

Parana 2+ goals

20%

Parana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

59%

Parana (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Parana away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.82 + Parana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Parana attack 0.56 + Oeste defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oeste scores more

41%

level

32%

Parana scores more

28%

Oeste at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

46'

58'

62'

65'

Kauã← Tite

75'

O. Ebere← Gustavo França

78'

De Paula← Léo Ceará

78'

Júnior Alves← Sandoval

83'

Ruan Pedra← Reis

86'

Zeca← Bruno Miguel

Oeste

Parana

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

65'▲Kauã←▼Tite

78'▲De Paula←▼Léo Ceará

78'▲Júnior Alves←▼Sandoval

86'▲Zeca←▼Bruno Miguel

Oeste substitutes

KauãPaulaAlvesZecaGlaucoDuarteDiogoDouglãoJeffinho

Manager: Maurílio Silva

46'▲Lucas Sene←▼Adriano

58'▲Sillas←▼Gustavinho

75'▲O. Ebere←▼Gustavo França

83'▲Ruan Pedra←▼Reis

Parana substitutes

SeneSillasEberePedraBryanJandersonNegueteParanhosRomulo

Serie C: Oeste 1–1 Parana

Oeste and Parana drew 1-1 in Serie C on July 23, 2021.

Goals: Kalil (7'), Vinícius Guarapuava (62').

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri, São Paulo.

Oeste vs Parana — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Oeste 1–1 Parana