Oeste 1–0 Parana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Oeste

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Parana

Raí Ramos 90'

1/26/2021

Serie B · Round 37Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Oeste43%

×Draw29%

Parana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchParana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.94

Oeste

1.24

Parana

0.94

Oeste creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 22 away

0.93

creates per match

0.91

0.96

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Oeste

0.93

Parana

0.91

allows per match

Oeste

0.96

Parana

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Parana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

72%

Oeste or Parana

71%

Draw or Parana

57%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

19%

Parana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

71%

Oeste 2+ goals

35%

Oeste 3+ goals

13%

Parana 1+ goals

61%

Parana 2+ goals

24%

Parana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

61%

Parana (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Parana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Parana defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Parana attack 0.91 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oeste scores more

43%

level

29%

Parana scores more

28%

Oeste at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Glauco

Oeste · G

9.0

Match Events

24'

Higor Meritão

46'

Kalil← Bruno Alves

59'

Guilherme Biteco← Higor

59'

Andrew← Thiago Alves

61'

Tite← Léo Ceará

61'

Lucas Gonçalves← Matheus Indio

66'

71'

76'

77'

82'

88'

88'

Juninho← Paulinho

89'

Salazar

90'

Jean

90'

Raí Ramos↳ Welliton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteParana

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots25

2Corners9

16Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots25

4On Target8

3Off Target12

0Blocked5

2Inside Box15

5Outside Box10

Passing

32%Possession68%

270Total Passes540

186Accurate Passes454

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Oeste vs Parana

Oeste beat Parana 1-0 in Serie B on January 26, 2021.

Goals: Raí Ramos (90').

Parana controlled possession (68%) and registered 25 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri, São Paulo.

Oeste vs Parana — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oeste vs Parana