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Paradou AC vs Olympique Medea — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
Unknown 77', 50'
Unknown 60'
4/16/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade Omar Hamadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Paradou AC51%
×Draw27%
Olympique Medea22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.44
Olympique Medea
0.83

Paradou AC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 52 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
Olympique Medea
0.69

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
Olympique Medea
1.46

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
78%
Paradou AC or Olympique Medea
73%
Draw or Olympique Medea
49%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
26%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
76%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
42%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
18%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
56%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
20%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
70%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + Olympique Medea defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Olympique Medea attack 0.69 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paradou AC scores more
51%
level
27%
Olympique Medea scores more
22%

Paradou AC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
60'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Paradou AC 2–1 Olympique Medea

Paradou AC beat Olympique Medea 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 16, 2022.

Goals: ? (50', 60', 77').

The match was played at Stade Omar Hamadi in Algiers.