Olympique Medea 0–1 Paradou AC: Result & Stats

Olympique Medea

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paradou AC

1/26/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Imam Lyes (Médéa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Olympique Medea40%

×Draw28%

Paradou AC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique MedeaExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Olympique Medea

1.23

Paradou AC

1.06

Olympique Medea creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 120 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Olympique Medea

1.14

Paradou AC

1.07

allows per match

Olympique Medea

1.04

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw

68%

Olympique Medea or Paradou AC

72%

Draw or Paradou AC

60%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

17%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

71%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

35%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

13%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

65%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

29%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

56%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Medea scores more

40%

level

28%

Paradou AC scores more

32%

Olympique Medea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff