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Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
1/22/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Paradou AC57%
×Draw26%
JSM Skikda17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.49
JSM Skikda
0.68

Paradou AC creates 119% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 35 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
JSM Skikda
0.37

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
JSM Skikda
1.57

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
83%
Paradou AC or JSM Skikda
74%
Draw or JSM Skikda
43%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
29%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
77%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
44%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
19%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
49%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
15%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
77%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Paradou AC scores more
57%
level
26%
JSM Skikda scores more
17%

Paradou AC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda

Paradou AC beat JSM Skikda 3-0 in Ligue 1 on January 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Dar El Beïda in Algiers.