JSM Skikda 0–3 Paradou AC: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

JSM Skikda

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Paradou AC

7/1/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JSM Skikda39%

×Draw28%

Paradou AC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JSM SkikdaExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

JSM Skikda

1.25

Paradou AC

1.12

JSM Skikda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

1.19

creates per match

1.07

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

JSM Skikda

1.19

Paradou AC

1.07

allows per match

JSM Skikda

1.17

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw

67%

JSM Skikda or Paradou AC

72%

Draw or Paradou AC

61%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+

17%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals

71%

JSM Skikda 2+ goals

36%

JSM Skikda 3+ goals

13%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

67%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

31%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)

54%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JSM Skikda scores more

39%

level

28%

Paradou AC scores more

33%

JSM Skikda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff