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Paradou AC vs Bordj Bou Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
11/16/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Paradou AC55%
×Draw26%
Bordj Bou Arreridj19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.52
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.76

Paradou AC creates 100% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 45 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.62

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

Bordj Bou Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
81%
Paradou AC or Bordj Bou Arreridj
74%
Draw or Bordj Bou Arreridj
45%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
29%
Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
78%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
45%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
20%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
53%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
18%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
75%
Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 0.53 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paradou AC scores more
55%
level
26%
Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
19%

Paradou AC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paradou AC 2 – 0 Bordj Bou Arreridj

Paradou AC beat Bordj Bou Arreridj 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 16, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).