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Bordj BOU Arreridj vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
11/9/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj39%
×Draw28%
Paradou AC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.21
Paradou AC
1.06

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 120 away

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.09
Paradou AC
1.07

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.04
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw
68%
Bordj BOU Arreridj or Paradou AC
72%
Draw or Paradou AC
61%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
17%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
70%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
34%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
12%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
65%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
29%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
55%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.09 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
39%
level
28%
Paradou AC scores more
32%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bordj BOU Arreridj vs Paradou AC

Bordj BOU Arreridj beat Paradou AC 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).