Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paradiso vs Lugano II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Paradiso
Paradiso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lugano II
Lugano II
11/30/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 13Campo Pian Scairolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Paradiso46%
×Draw23%
Lugano II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradiso
1.76
Lugano II
1.38

Paradiso creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Paradiso
1.33
Lugano II
1.39

allows per match

Paradiso
1.37
Lugano II
2.18

finishing

Paradiso+0.00on par
Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradiso ↓

Lugano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Paradiso or draw
70%
Paradiso or Lugano II
77%
Draw or Lugano II
54%

Winning margin

Paradiso wins by 2+
25%
Lugano II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paradiso 1+ goals
83%
Paradiso 2+ goals
52%
Paradiso 3+ goals
26%
Lugano II 1+ goals
75%
Lugano II 2+ goals
40%
Lugano II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Paradiso (draw refunded)
61%
Lugano II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradiso at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradiso attack 1.33 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Paradiso defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paradiso scores more
46%
level
23%
Lugano II scores more
30%

Paradiso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paradiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Paradiso 2–1 Lugano II

Paradiso beat Lugano II 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Pian Scairolo in Collina d’Oro.