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Lugano II vs Paradiso — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Lugano II
Lugano II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Paradiso
Paradiso
10/4/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 10Centro Sportivo Al Maglio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lugano II38%
×Draw26%
Paradiso36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugano II
1.35
Paradiso
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Lugano II
1.37
Paradiso
1.02

allows per match

Lugano II
1.57
Paradiso
1.33

finishing

Lugano II+0.00on par
Paradiso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano II ↓

Paradiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lugano II or draw
64%
Lugano II or Paradiso
74%
Draw or Paradiso
62%

Winning margin

Lugano II wins by 2+
17%
Paradiso wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lugano II 1+ goals
74%
Lugano II 2+ goals
39%
Lugano II 3+ goals
15%
Paradiso 1+ goals
72%
Paradiso 2+ goals
37%
Paradiso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lugano II (draw refunded)
52%
Paradiso (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Paradiso away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano II attack 1.37 + Paradiso defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Paradiso attack 1.02 + Lugano II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lugano II scores more
38%
level
26%
Paradiso scores more
36%

Lugano II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lugano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Lugano II 2–2 Paradiso

Lugano II and Paradiso drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Al Maglio in Canobbio.