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Para Hills Knights vs Modbury Jets — South Australia NPL 2026

Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
H. Conant 90+1'
A. Hussein 75'
5/25/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 12The Paddocks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Para Hills Knights33%
×Draw22%
Modbury Jets44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Para Hills Knights
1.58
Modbury Jets
1.85

Modbury Jets creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Para Hills Knights
1.18
Modbury Jets
1.53

allows per match

Para Hills Knights
2.18
Modbury Jets
1.98

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw
56%
Para Hills Knights or Modbury Jets
78%
Draw or Modbury Jets
67%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
16%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
79%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
47%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
21%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
84%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
55%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
43%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.18 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.58

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more
33%
level
22%
Modbury Jets scores more
44%

Modbury Jets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
A. Hussein
90+1'
H. Conant

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Para Hills Knights vs Modbury Jets

Para Hills Knights beat Modbury Jets 2-0 in South Australia NPL on May 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Hussein (75'), H. Conant (90+1').

The match was played at The Paddocks in Adelaide.