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Modbury Jets vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia NPL 2026

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
F. Schimizzi 82'
G. Macheda 49'
A. Muradi 54'
K. Shrestha 32'
H. Conant 8'
2/23/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 1Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets56%
×Draw20%
Para Hills Knights24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
2.33
Para Hills Knights
1.49

Modbury Jets creates 56% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 50 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
1.79
Para Hills Knights
1.12

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.85
Para Hills Knights
2.86

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
76%
Modbury Jets or Para Hills Knights
80%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
44%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
35%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
90%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
67%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
41%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
77%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
44%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
70%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Para Hills Knights attack 1.12 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
56%
level
20%
Para Hills Knights scores more
24%

Modbury Jets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
H. Conant
32'
K. Shrestha
49'
G. Macheda
54'
A. Muradi
82'
F. Schimizzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Modbury Jets 2–3 Para Hills Knights

Para Hills Knights beat Modbury Jets 3-2 in South Australia NPL on February 23, 2024.

Goals: H. Conant (8'), K. Shrestha (32'), G. Macheda (49'), A. Muradi (54'), F. Schimizzi (82').

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.