Para Hills Knights 4–1 Adelaide University

Para Hills Knights

FT

4 – 1

Adelaide University

4/30/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 9The Paddocks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Para Hills Knights56%

×Draw22%

Adelaide University22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Para Hills KnightsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.12

Para Hills Knights

1.92

Adelaide University

1.12

Para Hills Knights creates 71% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

0.73

1.51

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Para Hills Knights

1.94

Adelaide University

0.73

allows per match

Para Hills Knights

1.51

Adelaide University

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

Adelaide University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw

78%

Para Hills Knights or Adelaide University

78%

Draw or Adelaide University

44%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+

32%

Adelaide University wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals

85%

Para Hills Knights 2+ goals

57%

Para Hills Knights 3+ goals

30%

Adelaide University 1+ goals

67%

Adelaide University 2+ goals

31%

Adelaide University 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)

72%

Adelaide University (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.94 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.92

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more

56%

level

22%

Adelaide University scores more

22%

Para Hills Knights at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff