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Adelaide University vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide University
Adelaide University
FT
0 – 2
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
7/30/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 20Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide University22%
×Draw21%
Para Hills Knights57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide University
1.22
Para Hills Knights
2.08

Para Hills Knights creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 38 away

creates per match

Adelaide University
1.18
Para Hills Knights
1.53

allows per match

Adelaide University
2.64
Para Hills Knights
1.26

finishing

Adelaide University+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide University ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Adelaide University or draw
43%
Adelaide University or Para Hills Knights
79%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
78%

Winning margin

Adelaide University wins by 2+
9%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Adelaide University 1+ goals
70%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
34%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
12%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
87%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
61%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Adelaide University (draw refunded)
28%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide University at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide University attack 1.18 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Para Hills Knights attack 1.53 + Adelaide University defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Adelaide University scores more
22%
level
21%
Para Hills Knights scores more
57%

Para Hills Knights at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide University 0–2 Para Hills Knights

Para Hills Knights beat Adelaide University 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.