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Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide Comets — South Australia NPL 2026

Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
6/15/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 15The Paddocks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Para Hills Knights28%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Comets50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Para Hills Knights
1.36
Adelaide Comets
1.89

Adelaide Comets creates 39% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 88 away

creates per match

Para Hills Knights
1.18
Adelaide Comets
1.59

allows per match

Para Hills Knights
2.18
Adelaide Comets
1.55

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par
Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

Adelaide Comets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw
50%
Para Hills Knights or Adelaide Comets
78%
Draw or Adelaide Comets
72%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
12%
Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
74%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
39%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
16%
Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
85%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
56%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
36%
Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

Adelaide Comets away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.18 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Adelaide Comets attack 1.59 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more
28%
level
22%
Adelaide Comets scores more
50%

Adelaide Comets at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Para Hills Knights 2–2 Adelaide Comets

Para Hills Knights and Adelaide Comets drew 2-2 in South Australia NPL on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at The Paddocks in Adelaide.