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Adelaide Comets vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
R. F. Garrido 80', 2'
J. Lobasso 56'
L. Smith 65'
3/22/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 4ServiceFM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Adelaide Comets63%
×Draw19%
Para Hills Knights17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Comets
2.31
Para Hills Knights
1.13

Adelaide Comets creates 104% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 50 away

creates per match

Adelaide Comets
1.76
Para Hills Knights
1.12

allows per match

Adelaide Comets
1.14
Para Hills Knights
2.86

finishing

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Comets ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Adelaide Comets or draw
83%
Adelaide Comets or Para Hills Knights
81%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
37%

Winning margin

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
41%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
90%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
67%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
40%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
68%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
31%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
78%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Comets at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Comets attack 1.76 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.31

Para Hills Knights attack 1.12 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Adelaide Comets scores more
63%
level
19%
Para Hills Knights scores more
17%

Adelaide Comets at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
R. F. Garrido
56'
J. Lobasso
65'
L. Smith
80'
R. F. Garrido

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adelaide Comets 3 – 1 Para Hills Knights

Adelaide Comets beat Para Hills Knights 3-1 in South Australia NPL on March 22, 2024.

Goals: R. F. Garrido (2', 80'), J. Lobasso (56'), L. Smith (65').

The match was played at ServiceFM Stadium in Adelaide.