PAOK 0–2 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

PAOK

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fehérvár FC

10/25/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Toumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

PAOK40%

×Draw26%

Fehérvár FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOKExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.22

PAOK

1.37

Fehérvár FC

1.22

PAOK creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

1.50

0.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

PAOK

1.57

Fehérvár FC

1.50

allows per match

PAOK

0.93

Fehérvár FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

PAOK or draw

67%

PAOK or Fehérvár FC

74%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

60%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+

19%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals

75%

PAOK 2+ goals

40%

PAOK 3+ goals

16%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

70%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

34%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)

55%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.57 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fehérvár FC attack 1.50 + PAOK defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PAOK scores more

40%

level

26%

Fehérvár FC scores more

33%

PAOK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff