Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fehérvár FC vs PAOK — UEFA Europa League 2018

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PAOK
PAOK
11/8/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fehérvár FC46%
×Draw26%
PAOK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
1.44
PAOK
1.06

Fehérvár FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
0.80
PAOK
1.31

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.80
PAOK
2.08

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
72%
Fehérvár FC or PAOK
74%
Draw or PAOK
54%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
22%
PAOK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
76%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
42%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
18%
PAOK 1+ goals
65%
PAOK 2+ goals
29%
PAOK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
62%
PAOK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 0.80 + PAOK defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

PAOK attack 1.31 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
46%
level
26%
PAOK scores more
28%

Fehérvár FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fehérvár FC vs PAOK

Fehérvár FC beat PAOK 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 8, 2018.

The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.