PAOK U19 1–2 Legia Warszawa U19: Result & Stats

PAOK U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Legia Warszawa U19

P. Stylos 54'

S. Kovacik 83'

S. Piasta 75'

12/9/2025

UEFA Youth League · FinalToumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PAOK U1942%

×Draw23%

Legia Warszawa U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK U19Expected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.52

PAOK U19

1.69

Legia Warszawa U19

1.52

PAOK U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.38

creates per match

1.67

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Legia Warszawa U19

1.67

allows per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Legia Warszawa U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK U19+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK U19 ↓

Legia Warszawa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

PAOK U19 or draw

65%

PAOK U19 or Legia Warszawa U19

77%

Draw or Legia Warszawa U19

58%

Winning margin

PAOK U19 wins by 2+

22%

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

PAOK U19 1+ goals

82%

PAOK U19 2+ goals

50%

PAOK U19 3+ goals

24%

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

78%

Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

45%

Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

PAOK U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Legia Warszawa U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK U19 attack 1.38 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 1.67 + PAOK U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PAOK U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more

35%

PAOK U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PAOK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

48'

54'

56'

63'

D. Berdos← G. Tsifoutis

71'

K. Toursounidis← B. Dunga

71'

S. Piasta← M. Saletra

72'

M. Papadopoulos← M. Sznaucner

72'

G. Krommydas← P. Stylos

73'

75'

77'

77'

78'

81'

81'

83'

83'

84'

A. Avrampos← M. Balde

90+4'

G. Kosidis

90+1'

A. Christopoulos← E. Mikanovich

PAOK

Legia

1

2

5

3

14

▼

Chojecki

6

A

Mozie

4

Ruszkiewi

11

▼

Mikanovic

15

▼

Saletra

9

Mizera

20

⚽

1

2

4

5

3

8

6

▼

Sznaucner

7

▼

Tsifoutis

10

▼

Balde

11

A

▼

Dunga

9

⚽

▼

Stylos

63'▲D. Berdos←▼G. Tsifoutis

71'▲K. Toursounidis←▼B. Dunga

72'▲M. Papadopoulos←▼M. Sznaucner

72'▲G. Krommydas←▼P. Stylos

84'▲A. Avrampos←▼M. Balde

PAOK U19 substitutes

15Nikolaidis12Tsitsilas13Vyrsokinos14Toursounidis16Papadopoulos17Aretis18Krommydas19Berdos20Avrampos

Manager: Patryk Seppelt Gorajewski

71'▲S. Piasta←▼M. Saletra

73'▲D. Foks←▼S. Chojecki

90+1'▲A. Christopoulos←▼E. Mikanovich

Legia Warszawa U19 substitutes

12Kassyanowicz33Stolarienko7Foks8Piasta13Pollok16Wyganowski17Christopoulos18Gliwa28Korzynski

UEFA Youth League: PAOK U19 1–2 Legia Warszawa U19

Legia Warszawa U19 beat PAOK U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 9, 2025.

Goals: P. Stylos (54'), S. Piasta (75'), S. Kovacik (83').

The match was played at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki.

PAOK U19 vs Legia Warszawa U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: PAOK U19 1–2 Legia Warszawa U19