Legia Warszawa U19 2–1 PAOK U19: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

PAOK U19

S. Kovacik 41', 1'

E. Gjoka 79'

11/25/2025

UEFA Youth League · FinalLegia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1960%

×Draw21%

PAOK U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa U19Expected goals in this matchPAOK U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.00

Legia Warszawa U19

1.98

PAOK U19

1.00

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U19

2.67

PAOK U19

1.00

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U19

1.00

PAOK U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

PAOK U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U19 ↓

PAOK U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U19 or draw

81%

Legia Warszawa U19 or PAOK U19

79%

Draw or PAOK U19

40%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

36%

PAOK U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

86%

Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

59%

Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

31%

PAOK U19 1+ goals

63%

PAOK U19 2+ goals

26%

PAOK U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

76%

PAOK U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

PAOK U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.67 + PAOK U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

PAOK U19 attack 1.00 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more

60%

level

21%

PAOK U19 scores more

19%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

S. Kovacik

3'

F. Przybylko← P. Mozie

19'

F. Przybylko

41'

S. Kovacik

58'

M. Balde← K. Toursounidis

58'

E. Gjoka← M. Papadopoulos

66'

D. Foks

71'

S. Piasta← C. Pchelka

71'

G. Tsifoutis← D. Berdos

76'

B. Dunga

79'

E. Gjoka↳ G. Tsifoutis

80'

A. Mythou

83'

P. Stylos← A. Mythou

83'

A. Aretis← B. Dunga

Legia

PAOK

1

2

5

4

3

8

▼

Papadopou

6

Sznaucner

10

▼

Toursouni

11

▼

Dunga

9

▼

Mythou

7

▼

1

2

5

3

7

6

▼

Mozie

4

Ruszkiewi

11

Mikanovic

8

▼

Pchelka

9

Mizera

20

⚽2

Kovacik

Manager: Patryk Seppelt Gorajewski

3'▲F. Przybylko←▼P. Mozie

71'▲S. Piasta←▼C. Pchelka

Legia Warszawa U19 substitutes

12Kassyanowicz33Stolarienko13Christopoulos14Korzynski15Przybylko16Piasta17Pollok18Gawarecki19Gliwa

58'▲M. Balde←▼K. Toursounidis

58'▲E. Gjoka←▼M. Papadopoulos

71'▲G. Tsifoutis←▼D. Berdos

83'▲P. Stylos←▼A. Mythou

83'▲A. Aretis←▼B. Dunga

PAOK U19 substitutes

15Nikolaidis12Karagiannidis13Vyrsokinos14Balde16Gjoka17Tsifoutis18Stylos19Aretis20Avrampos