PAOK U19 2–2 Dynamo Kyiv U19: Result & Stats

PAOK U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv U19

C. Tzolis 23'

G. Doumtsis 14' (pen)

M. Yarosh 90+6'

Y. Isaenko 90+4'

11/27/2019

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PAOK U1928%

×Draw25%

Dynamo Kyiv U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.63

PAOK U19

1.19

Dynamo Kyiv U19

1.63

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

1.89

1.38

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Dynamo Kyiv U19

1.89

allows per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Dynamo Kyiv U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK U19 ↓

Dynamo Kyiv U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

PAOK U19 or draw

52%

PAOK U19 or Dynamo Kyiv U19

75%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv U19

72%

Winning margin

PAOK U19 wins by 2+

11%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

PAOK U19 1+ goals

70%

PAOK U19 2+ goals

33%

PAOK U19 3+ goals

12%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals

80%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals

48%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

PAOK U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Dynamo Kyiv U19 away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK U19 attack 1.38 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 1.89 + PAOK U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PAOK U19 scores more

28%

level

25%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more

48%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

D. Skorko

14'

G. DoumtsisPenalty

20'

B. Biloshevskyi

23'

C. Tzolis

34'

R. Bodnya← V. Voloshyn

46'

V. Grosdis← P. Panagiotou

51'

R. Bodnia

60'

T. Pournaras← G. Koutsias

64'

E. Tachatos

66'

K. Vivcharenko

68'

D. Tsopouroglou← D. Panidis

72'

V. Gkorteziani← C. Tzolis

80'

V. Vanat← Y. Nadolskyi

80'

V. Bliznichenko← H. Tsitaishvili

86'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

I. Isaienko

90'

G. Michailidis

90+4'

M. Yarosh← A. Shulyanskyi

90+4'

Y. Isaenko

90+6'

M. Yarosh

PAOK

Dynamo

12

4

22

25

13

5

11

▼

Tsitaishv

15

▼

Voloshyn

17

▼

Nadolskyi

18

▼

Shulyansk

9

⚽

1

3

4

2

▼

6

5

8

10

⚽

Doumtsis

11

⚽

▼

Tzolis

9

▼

Panidis

7

▼

Koutsias

Manager: T. Komsis

46'▲V. Grosdis←▼P. Panagiotou

60'▲T. Pournaras←▼G. Koutsias

68'▲D. Tsopouroglou←▼D. Panidis

72'▲V. Gkorteziani←▼C. Tzolis

PAOK U19 substitutes

13Grosdis12Pournaras16Tsopouroglou17Gkorteziani18Pipiliaris15Mpalomenos14Karamperis

Manager: I. Kostyuk

34'▲R. Bodnya←▼V. Voloshyn

80'▲V. Vanat←▼Y. Nadolskyi

80'▲V. Bliznichenko←▼H. Tsitaishvili

90+4'▲M. Yarosh←▼A. Shulyanskyi

Dynamo Kyiv U19 substitutes

6Bodnya7Vanat10Bliznichenko23Yarosh1Morgun2Kuzyk19Khondak

UEFA Youth League: PAOK U19 2–2 Dynamo Kyiv U19

PAOK U19 and Dynamo Kyiv U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 27, 2019.

Goals: G. Doumtsis (14' pen), C. Tzolis (23'), Y. Isaenko (90+4'), M. Yarosh (90+6').

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki.

PAOK U19 vs Dynamo Kyiv U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: PAOK U19 2–2 Dynamo Kyiv U19