Dynamo Kyiv U19 3–0 PAOK U19: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

PAOK U19

Y. Nadolskyi 76'

H. Tsitaishvili 45+1' (pen), 10' (pen)

11/6/2019

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv U1961%

×Draw21%

PAOK U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Kyiv U19Expected goals in this matchPAOK U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.96

Dynamo Kyiv U19

1.98

PAOK U19

0.96

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.67

PAOK U19

1.00

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19

0.92

PAOK U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

PAOK U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv U19 ↓

PAOK U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or draw

82%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or PAOK U19

79%

Draw or PAOK U19

39%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

37%

PAOK U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals

59%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals

31%

PAOK U19 1+ goals

62%

PAOK U19 2+ goals

25%

PAOK U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

77%

PAOK U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

PAOK U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 2.67 + PAOK U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

PAOK U19 attack 1.00 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more

61%

level

21%

PAOK U19 scores more

18%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

H. TsitaishviliPenalty

22'

V. Voloshyn← M. Mykhailenko

45+1'

H. TsitaishviliPenalty

46'

J. Okoro← B. Biloshevskyi

46'

V. Grosdis← D. Tsopouroglou

46'

G. Koutsias← D. Panidis

74'

T. Pournaras← G. Doumtsis

76'

Y. Nadolskyi

79'

D. Efimenko← H. Tsitaishvili

90+1'

R. Bodnya← V. Voloshyn

Dynamo

PAOK

1

3

4

2

6

5

8

7

▼

Tsopourog

10

▼

Doumtsis

11

Tzolis

9

▼

12

4

22

25

13

5

▼

Biloshevs

11

⚽2

▼

Tsitaishv

17

⚽

Nadolskyi

18

Shulyansk

21

▼

Mykhailen

9

Isaenko

Manager: I. Kostyuk

22'▲V. Voloshyn←▼M. Mykhailenko

46'▲J. Okoro←▼B. Biloshevskyi

79'▲D. Efimenko←▼H. Tsitaishvili

90+1'▲R. Bodnya←▼V. Voloshyn

Dynamo Kyiv U19 substitutes

15Voloshyn3Okoro8Efimenko6Bodnya1Morgun2Kuzyk7Vanat

Manager: T. Komsis

46'▲V. Grosdis←▼D. Tsopouroglou

46'▲G. Koutsias←▼D. Panidis

74'▲T. Pournaras←▼G. Doumtsis

PAOK U19 substitutes

13Grosdis16Koutsias14Pournaras17Pipiliaris15Mpalomenos12Aventisian18Dajko

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs PAOK U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 beat PAOK U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 6, 2019.

Goals: H. Tsitaishvili (10' pen, 45+1' pen), Y. Nadolskyi (76').

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky in Kiev.

Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs PAOK U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs PAOK U19