Panthère 2–1 Eding Sport: Result & Stats

Panthère

FT

2 – 1

Eding Sport

11/25/2023

Elite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Panthère42%

×Draw30%

Eding Sport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanthèreExpected goals in this matchEding Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.92

Panthère

1.18

Eding Sport

0.92

Panthère creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

1.10

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Panthère

1.10

Eding Sport

0.93

allows per match

Panthère

0.90

Eding Sport

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

Eding Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Panthère or draw

71%

Panthère or Eding Sport

70%

Draw or Eding Sport

58%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+

18%

Eding Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals

69%

Panthère 2+ goals

33%

Panthère 3+ goals

12%

Eding Sport 1+ goals

60%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

23%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)

59%

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.10 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + Panthère defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Panthère scores more

42%

level

30%

Eding Sport scores more

29%

Panthère at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff