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Eding Sport vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
2 – 3
Panthère
Panthère
3/8/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 27Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eding Sport38%
×Draw31%
Panthère30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.04
Panthère
0.89

Eding Sport creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 64 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.02
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

Eding Sport
0.94
Panthère
1.05

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
70%
Eding Sport or Panthère
69%
Draw or Panthère
62%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
15%
Panthère wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
65%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
28%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
9%
Panthère 1+ goals
59%
Panthère 2+ goals
22%
Panthère 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
56%
Panthère (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Panthère attack 0.84 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eding Sport scores more
38%
level
31%
Panthère scores more
30%

Eding Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eding Sport vs Panthère

Panthère beat Eding Sport 3-2 in Elite One on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.