Panevėžys 3–1 Palanga: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Panevėžys

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palanga

8/12/2019

A Lyga · Round 24Aukštaitijos stadionas (Panevėžys)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Panevėžys60%

×Draw21%

Palanga19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanevėžysExpected goals in this matchPalanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.06

Panevėžys

2.04

Palanga

1.06

Panevėžys creates 92% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 14 away

1.44

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Panevėžys

1.44

Palanga

1.07

allows per match

Panevėžys

1.04

Palanga

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Palanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Palanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw

81%

Panevėžys or Palanga

79%

Draw or Palanga

40%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+

36%

Palanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals

87%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

60%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

33%

Palanga 1+ goals

65%

Palanga 2+ goals

29%

Palanga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

76%

Palanga (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Palanga away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Palanga defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.04

Palanga attack 1.07 + Panevėžys defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Panevėžys scores more

60%

level

21%

Palanga scores more

19%

Panevėžys at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff