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Palanga vs Panevėžys — A Lyga 2026

Palanga
Palanga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
7/4/2019A LygaA Lyga · Round 17Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Palanga25%
×Draw23%
Panevėžys52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palanga
1.21
Panevėžys
1.82

Panevėžys creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 127 away

creates per match

Palanga
1.00
Panevėžys
1.29

allows per match

Palanga
2.36
Panevėžys
1.43

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par
Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

Panevėžys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Palanga or draw
48%
Palanga or Panevėžys
77%
Draw or Panevėžys
75%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+
10%
Panevėžys wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals
70%
Palanga 2+ goals
34%
Palanga 3+ goals
12%
Panevėžys 1+ goals
84%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
54%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)
33%
Panevėžys (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 1.00 + Panevėžys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Panevėžys attack 1.29 + Palanga defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palanga scores more
25%
level
23%
Panevėžys scores more
52%

Panevėžys at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palanga vs Panevėžys

Panevėžys beat Palanga 2-1 in A Lyga on July 4, 2019.

The match was played at Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga).