Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026
Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 100+ matches
Panevėžys49%
Džiugas Telšiai25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Panevėžys creates 51% more chances
Season form · 121 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Panevėžys ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.96 · 121 matches
Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48
Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Panevėžys defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Panevėžys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Panevėžys score first in only 33% of matches
- 67% of Panevėžys’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- 37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Panevėžys host Džiugas Telšiai on Monday, 3 August 2026 at 16:30. The match is part of the A Lyga 2026/2027 season.
Panevėžys face Džiugas Telšiai (A Lyga)
A Lyga returns with Panevėžys hosting Džiugas Telšiai. Match starts August 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Panevėžys host Džiugas Telšiai at Aukstaitijos Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.