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Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
4/5/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 7Aukstaitijos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Panevėžys48%
×Draw26%
Džiugas Telšiai26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys
1.48
Džiugas Telšiai
1.02

Panevėžys creates 45% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 100 away

creates per match

Panevėžys
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

allows per match

Panevėžys
1.04
Džiugas Telšiai
1.52

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw
74%
Panevėžys or Džiugas Telšiai
74%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
52%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+
24%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals
77%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
43%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
19%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
64%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
27%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)
65%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Panevėžys defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Panevėžys scores more
48%
level
26%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
26%

Panevėžys at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Panevėžys 0–1 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Panevėžys 1-0 in A Lyga on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Aukstaitijos Stadium.