Panevėžys 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Panevėžys

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Džiugas Telšiai

1/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Panevėžys60%

×Draw23%

Džiugas Telšiai17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanevėžysExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.85

Panevėžys

1.83

Džiugas Telšiai

0.85

Panevėžys creates 115% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.86

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Panevėžys

1.86

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Panevėžys

0.71

Džiugas Telšiai

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw

83%

Panevėžys or Džiugas Telšiai

77%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

40%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+

35%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals

84%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

54%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

28%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

57%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

21%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

78%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.86 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Panevėžys defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Panevėžys scores more

60%

level

23%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

17%

Panevėžys at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff