Panevėžys 3–2 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Panevėžys

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Džiugas Telšiai

A. Bašić 90+2'

N. Milev 38', 13'

N. Mbo 70'

Aldaír 69'

8/27/2022

A Lyga · Round 24Aukštaitija stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Panevėžys49%

×Draw26%

Džiugas Telšiai25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanevėžysExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

Panevėžys

1.48

Džiugas Telšiai

0.98

Panevėžys creates 51% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 100 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Panevėžys

1.44

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Panevėžys

0.96

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw

75%

Panevėžys or Džiugas Telšiai

74%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

51%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+

24%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals

77%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

43%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

19%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

62%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

26%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

66%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.96 · 121 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Panevėžys defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Panevėžys scores more

49%

level

26%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

25%

Panevėžys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

34'

37'

38'

40'

46'

62'

T. Rapalavičius← L. Ankudinovas

65'

A. Bašić← S. Vásquez

65'

M. Remeikis← T. Eliošius

66'

69'

70'

76'

81'

90+1'

90+5'

90+2'

Panevėžys

Džiugas

31

Paukštė

4

Mika

36

Sarpong

33

▼

Ankudinov

77

Zbun

83

⚽

Aldaír

23

▼

Pyrogov

14

Antonio

11

Eduardo

10

▼

Braz

45

⚽

97

2

21

17

23

18

▼

14

80

29

10

⚽2

Milev

15

▼

Vásquez

Manager: V. Urbonas

65'▲A. Bašić←▼S. Vásquez

65'▲M. Remeikis←▼T. Eliošius

Panevėžys substitutes

9Bašić16Remeikis12Šimkevičius22Misiūnas26Diallo50Perveinis66Dzinga13Žederštreimas19Trakšelis25Vaičekauskas

Manager: João Prates

46'▲K. Shults←▼Ivo Braz

62'▲T. Rapalavičius←▼L. Ankudinovas

76'▲D. Šluta←▼M. Pyrogov

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

18Shults13Rapalavičius27Šluta1Šarkauskas97Jankauskas16Pilipavičius76Jankevičius

Match Recap: Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai

Panevėžys beat Džiugas Telšiai 3-2 in A Lyga on August 27, 2022.

Goals: N. Milev (13', 38'), Aldaír (69'), N. Mbo (70'), A. Bašić (90+2').

The match was played at Aukštaitija stadionas in Panevėžys.

Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai