Panevėžys II 1–3 Minija: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Panevėžys II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Minija

M. Pusnys 73'

V. Jasmontas 90+8'

N. Leao De Miranda 38'

P. Okende 14'

6/21/2024

1 Lyga · Round 15Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Panevėžys II38%

×Draw23%

Minija39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchMinija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.67

Panevėžys II

1.64

Minija

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 101 away

1.47

creates per match

1.34

2.01

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Minija

1.34

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Minija

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Minija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

61%

Panevėžys II or Minija

77%

Draw or Minija

62%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

19%

Minija wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

81%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

49%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

23%

Minija 1+ goals

81%

Minija 2+ goals

50%

Minija 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

49%

Minija (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Minija away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Minija defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Minija attack 1.34 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

38%

level

23%

Minija scores more

39%

Minija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. Okende

15'

R. Kulbis← R. Kulbis

38'

N. Leao De Miranda

46'

I. Lukosevicius← I. Lukosevicius

65'

D. Gleveckas← D. Gleveckas

70'

M. Dilys← M. Dilys

73'

M. Pusnys

76'

E. Pompilio

87'

G. Martins← G. Martins

87'

K. Yoshida← K. Yoshida

90'

I. Lukosevicius

90+3'

A. Putvinas← A. Putvinas

90+8'

V. Jasmontas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff