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Minija vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Minija
Minija
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
M. Gedutis 24'
A. Trakselis 72'
11/8/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30Kretingos dirbtinės dangos aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Minija48%
×Draw23%
Panevėžys II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minija
1.83
Panevėžys II
1.39

Minija creates 32% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 81 away

creates per match

Minija
1.47
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Minija
1.30
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Minija+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Minija or draw
71%
Minija or Panevėžys II
77%
Draw or Panevėžys II
52%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+
26%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals
84%
Minija 2+ goals
54%
Minija 3+ goals
28%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
75%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
40%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)
62%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.47 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.83

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Minija scores more
48%
level
23%
Panevėžys II scores more
29%

Minija at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
M. Gedutis
29'
A. Trakselis
32'
E. Mockus
46'
I. Lukosevicius← I. Lukosevicius
46'
A. Butkus← A. Butkus
46'
D. Balsys← D. Balsys
46'
N. Luksys← N. Luksys
46'
R. Kulbis← R. Kulbis
52'
G. Steckys
70'
N. Luksys
72'
A. Trakselis
77'
K. Sonkevicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Minija 1–1 Panevėžys II

Minija and Panevėžys II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on November 8, 2024.

Goals: M. Gedutis (24'), A. Trakselis (72').

The match was played at Kretingos dirbtinės dangos aikštė in Kretinga.