Panevėžys II 1–3 Hegelmann Litauen: Result & Stats

Panevėžys II

FT

1 – 3

Hegelmann Litauen

F. Steponavicius 71'

R. Lipnevicius 67'

A. Kyeremeh 40' (pen)

A. Raginis 19'

9/20/2020

1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 2Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Panevėžys II30%

×Draw24%

Hegelmann Litauen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchHegelmann Litauen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.72

Panevėžys II

1.34

Hegelmann Litauen

1.72

Hegelmann Litauen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 23 away

1.47

creates per match

1.43

2.01

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Hegelmann Litauen

1.43

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Hegelmann Litauen

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

54%

Panevėžys II or Hegelmann Litauen

76%

Draw or Hegelmann Litauen

70%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

13%

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

74%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

39%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

15%

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

82%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

51%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

39%

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.43 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

30%

level

24%

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

46%

Hegelmann Litauen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Raginis

40'

A. KyeremehPenalty

67'

R. Lipnevicius

71'

F. Steponavicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff