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Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
FT
4 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
J. Supronas 74'
U. Lekecinskas 49'
R. Lipnevicius 44'
V. Armanavicius 41'
6/27/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 4Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen61%
×Draw19%
Panevėžys II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann Litauen
2.35
Panevėžys II
1.25

Hegelmann Litauen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen
2.52
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen
1.04
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw
81%
Hegelmann Litauen or Panevėžys II
81%
Draw or Panevėžys II
39%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
39%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
90%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
68%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
41%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
71%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
36%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
76%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 2.52 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.35

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more
61%
level
19%
Panevėžys II scores more
19%

Hegelmann Litauen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
V. Armanavicius
44'
R. Lipnevicius
49'
U. Lekecinskas
74'
J. Supronas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Hegelmann Litauen 4–0 Panevėžys II

Hegelmann Litauen beat Panevėžys II 4-0 in 1 Lyga on June 27, 2020.

Goals: V. Armanavicius (41'), R. Lipnevicius (44'), U. Lekecinskas (49'), J. Supronas (74').

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.