Panevėžys II 3–1 Garliava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Panevėžys II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Garliava

11/2/2024

1 Lyga · Round 29Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Panevėžys II38%

×Draw24%

Garliava38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchGarliava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

Panevėžys II

1.56

Garliava

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

1.47

creates per match

1.12

2.01

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Garliava

1.12

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Garliava

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Garliava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Garliava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

62%

Panevėžys II or Garliava

76%

Draw or Garliava

62%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

19%

Garliava wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

79%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

46%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

21%

Garliava 1+ goals

79%

Garliava 2+ goals

46%

Garliava 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

50%

Garliava (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Garliava away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Garliava defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Garliava attack 1.12 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

38%

level

24%

Garliava scores more

38%

Panevėžys II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Panevėžys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff