Garliava 1–2 Panevėžys II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Garliava

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Panevėžys II

6/14/2024

1 Lyga · Round 14Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Garliava46%

×Draw24%

Panevėžys II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarliavaExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.36

Garliava

1.73

Panevėžys II

1.36

Garliava creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 81 away

1.26

creates per match

1.47

1.25

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Garliava

1.26

Panevėžys II

1.47

allows per match

Garliava

1.25

Panevėžys II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

Panevėžys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Garliava or draw

70%

Garliava or Panevėžys II

76%

Draw or Panevėžys II

54%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+

25%

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals

82%

Garliava 2+ goals

52%

Garliava 3+ goals

25%

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

74%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

39%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)

60%

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 1.26 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Garliava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Garliava scores more

46%

level

24%

Panevėžys II scores more

30%

Garliava at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff