Panevėžys II 1–3 Dainava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Panevėžys II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Dainava

10/22/2022

1 Lyga · Round 27Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Panevėžys II28%

×Draw23%

Dainava49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.80

Panevėžys II

1.30

Dainava

1.80

Dainava creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 48 away

1.47

creates per match

1.60

2.01

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Dainava

1.60

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Dainava

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

51%

Panevėžys II or Dainava

77%

Draw or Dainava

72%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

12%

Dainava wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

73%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

37%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

14%

Dainava 1+ goals

83%

Dainava 2+ goals

54%

Dainava 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

36%

Dainava (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dainava attack 1.60 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

28%

level

23%

Dainava scores more

49%

Dainava at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff