Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dainava vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Dainava
Dainava
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
P. O. Ademo 68'
N. Paliusis 33'
Z. Baguska 84'
N. Luksys 80'
6/20/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Dainava62%
×Draw19%
Panevėžys II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
2.34
Panevėžys II
1.21

Dainava creates 93% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dainava
2.50
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Dainava
0.95
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
81%
Dainava or Panevėžys II
81%
Draw or Panevėžys II
38%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
40%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
90%
Dainava 2+ goals
67%
Dainava 3+ goals
41%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
70%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
34%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
77%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 2.50 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.34

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Dainava defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dainava scores more
62%
level
19%
Panevėžys II scores more
19%

Dainava at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
N. Paliusis
68'
P. O. Ademo
80'
N. Luksys
84'
Z. Baguska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dainava vs Panevėžys II

Dainava and Panevėžys II drew 2-2 in 1 Lyga on June 20, 2022.

Goals: N. Paliusis (33'), P. O. Ademo (68'), N. Luksys (80'), Z. Baguska (84').

The match was played at Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas in Alytus.