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Panevėžys II vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BFA
BFA
R. Misiunas 80' (pen)
A. Osipovic 9'
10/19/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Panevėžys II41%
×Draw23%
BFA37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.76
BFA
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 104 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
BFA
2.05

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
63%
Panevėžys II or BFA
77%
Draw or BFA
59%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
21%
BFA wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
83%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
52%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
26%
BFA 1+ goals
81%
BFA 2+ goals
50%
BFA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
52%
BFA (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

BFA attack 1.34 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
41%
level
23%
BFA scores more
37%

Panevėžys II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Panevėžys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Osipovic
33'
M. Malatokas
46'
A. Slikas← A. Slikas
61'
A. Butkus← A. Butkus
65'
D. Misiunas← D. Misiunas
73'
N. Luksys
73'
A. Osipovic
73'
A. Korsakas
79'
D. Misiunas
80'
U. Semaska
80'
R. MisiunasPenalty
88'
P. Pranckus
89'
N. Benevicius← N. Benevicius
90'
E. Dzinga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs BFA

Panevėžys II and BFA drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on October 19, 2024.

Goals: A. Osipovic (9'), R. Misiunas (80' pen).

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.