Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BFA vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
A. Osipovic 79'
D. Kodz 11'
N. Garbaliauskas 4'
A. Sidlauskas 90+7' (OG)
N. Luksys 21'
D. Vaicekauskas 12'
6/2/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

BFA48%
×Draw22%
Panevėžys II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.93
Panevėžys II
1.48

BFA creates 30% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 81 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

BFA
1.50
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

BFA or draw
70%
BFA or Panevėžys II
78%
Draw or Panevėžys II
52%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
27%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
85%
BFA 2+ goals
57%
BFA 3+ goals
30%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
77%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
43%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
62%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.93

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BFA scores more
48%
level
22%
Panevėžys II scores more
30%

BFA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Osipovic
4'
N. Garbaliauskas
7'
A. Karvatskyi
11'
D. Kodz
12'
D. Vaicekauskas
21'
N. Luksys
51'
R. Kulbis← R. Kulbis
51'
M. Pusnys← M. Pusnys
64'
A. Sidlauskas← A. Sidlauskas
64'
D. Balsys
77'
R. Misiunas
78'
N. Luksys
79'
A. Osipovic
81'
K. Urbanavicius← K. Urbanavicius
83'
E. Puikis← E. Puikis
90+5'
A. Sidlauskas
90+7'
D. Bukel
90+7'
A. SidlauskasOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: BFA 3–3 Panevėžys II

BFA and Panevėžys II drew 3-3 in 1 Lyga on June 2, 2024.

Goals: N. Garbaliauskas (4'), D. Kodz (11'), D. Vaicekauskas (12'), N. Luksys (21'), A. Osipovic (79'), A. Sidlauskas (90+7' o.g.).

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.