Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pandurii TG JIU vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
12/5/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU28%
×Draw26%
U Craiova 194846%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pandurii TG JIU
1.11
U Craiova 1948
1.48

U Craiova 1948 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.12
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.72
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw
54%
Pandurii TG JIU or U Craiova 1948
74%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
72%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
11%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
67%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
30%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
10%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
77%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
43%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
38%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more
28%
level
26%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
46%

U Craiova 1948 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Pandurii TG JIU 2–3 U Craiova 1948

U Craiova 1948 beat Pandurii TG JIU 3-2 in Liga II on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu in Târgu Jiu.