Pandurii TG JIU 1–2 CS Mioveni: Result & Stats

Pandurii TG JIU

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CS Mioveni

9/26/2020

Liga II · Round 5Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU27%

×Draw26%

CS Mioveni46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pandurii TG JIUExpected goals in this matchCS Mioveni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.46

Pandurii TG JIU

1.06

CS Mioveni

1.46

CS Mioveni creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 70 away

1.12

creates per match

1.19

1.72

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU

1.12

CS Mioveni

1.19

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU

1.72

CS Mioveni

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

CS Mioveni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw

54%

Pandurii TG JIU or CS Mioveni

74%

Draw or CS Mioveni

73%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

10%

CS Mioveni wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

65%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

29%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

9%

CS Mioveni 1+ goals

77%

CS Mioveni 2+ goals

43%

CS Mioveni 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

37%

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

CS Mioveni away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + CS Mioveni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

CS Mioveni attack 1.19 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

27%

level

26%

CS Mioveni scores more

46%

CS Mioveni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff