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CS Mioveni vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
11/2/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

CS Mioveni57%
×Draw23%
Pandurii TG JIU21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.86
Pandurii TG JIU
1.02

CS Mioveni creates 82% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
79%
CS Mioveni or Pandurii TG JIU
77%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
43%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
33%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
84%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
55%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
28%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
64%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
27%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
74%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
57%
level
23%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
21%

CS Mioveni at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CS Mioveni 4–0 Pandurii TG JIU

CS Mioveni beat Pandurii TG JIU 4-0 in Liga II on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.