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Pandurii TG JIU vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
5/4/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 33Stadionul Municipal Tudor Vladimirescu - Teren II (Sintetic) (Târgu Jiu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU47%
×Draw24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pandurii TG JIU
1.69
CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.28

Pandurii TG JIU creates 32% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.12
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.72
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw
71%
Pandurii TG JIU or CS Luceafarul Oradea
76%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
53%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
25%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
82%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
50%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
72%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
37%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
62%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more
47%
level
24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
29%

Pandurii TG JIU at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pandurii TG JIU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Pandurii TG JIU 0–0 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Pandurii TG JIU and CS Luceafarul Oradea drew 0-0 in Liga II on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Tudor Vladimirescu - Teren II (Sintetic) (Târgu Jiu).