CS Luceafarul Oradea 1–0 Pandurii TG JIU

CS Luceafarul Oradea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pandurii TG JIU

10/27/2018

Liga II · Round 14Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea68%

×Draw19%

Pandurii TG JIU14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Luceafarul OradeaExpected goals in this matchPandurii TG JIU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.90

CS Luceafarul Oradea

2.25

Pandurii TG JIU

0.90

CS Luceafarul Oradea creates 150% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

2.16

creates per match

0.95

0.84

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea

2.16

Pandurii TG JIU

0.95

allows per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.84

Pandurii TG JIU

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Luceafarul Oradea ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

CS Luceafarul Oradea or draw

86%

CS Luceafarul Oradea or Pandurii TG JIU

81%

Draw or Pandurii TG JIU

32%

Winning margin

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+

44%

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals

89%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals

65%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals

39%

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

59%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

23%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)

83%

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Luceafarul Oradea at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 2.16 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.25

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more

68%

level

19%

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

14%

CS Luceafarul Oradea at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "CS Luceafarul Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff