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Pandurii TG JIU vs Arges Pitesti — Liga II 2018

Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
3/7/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 24Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU28%
×Draw27%
Arges Pitesti45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pandurii TG JIU
1.02
Arges Pitesti
1.38

Arges Pitesti creates 35% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 62 away

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.12
Arges Pitesti
1.03

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.72
Arges Pitesti
0.92

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw
55%
Pandurii TG JIU or Arges Pitesti
73%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
72%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
10%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
64%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
27%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
8%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
75%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
40%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
38%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more
28%
level
27%
Arges Pitesti scores more
45%

Arges Pitesti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Pandurii TG JIU 0–4 Arges Pitesti

Arges Pitesti beat Pandurii TG JIU 4-0 in Liga II on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu in Târgu Jiu.