Arges Pitesti 3–1 Pandurii TG JIU: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pandurii TG JIU

12/7/2018

Liga II · Round 21Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin (Piteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Arges Pitesti64%

×Draw21%

Pandurii TG JIU15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchPandurii TG JIU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.84

Arges Pitesti

1.98

Pandurii TG JIU

0.84

Arges Pitesti creates 136% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 44 away

1.61

creates per match

0.95

0.73

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.61

Pandurii TG JIU

0.95

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.73

Pandurii TG JIU

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

85%

Arges Pitesti or Pandurii TG JIU

79%

Draw or Pandurii TG JIU

36%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

39%

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

86%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

59%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

31%

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

57%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

21%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

81%

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.98

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

64%

level

21%

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

15%

Arges Pitesti at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff