Panda B5 1–3 Malole: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Panda B5

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Malole

10/26/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Panda B543%

×Draw28%

Malole29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panda B5Expected goals in this matchMalole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.01

Panda B5

1.30

Malole

1.01

Panda B5 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

0.85

creates per match

0.64

1.38

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Panda B5

0.85

Malole

0.64

allows per match

Panda B5

1.38

Malole

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panda B5+0.00on par

Malole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panda B5 ↓

Malole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Panda B5 or draw

71%

Panda B5 or Malole

72%

Draw or Malole

57%

Winning margin

Panda B5 wins by 2+

20%

Malole wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Panda B5 1+ goals

73%

Panda B5 2+ goals

37%

Panda B5 3+ goals

14%

Malole 1+ goals

64%

Malole 2+ goals

27%

Malole 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

60%

Malole (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panda B5 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Malole away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panda B5 attack 0.85 + Malole defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Malole attack 0.64 + Panda B5 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panda B5 scores more

43%

level

28%

Malole scores more

29%

Panda B5 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panda B5 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff