Malole 2–0 Panda B5: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Malole

FT

2 – 0

Panda B5

3/1/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Malole59%

×Draw27%

Panda B514%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaloleExpected goals in this matchPanda B5

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.56

Malole

1.45

Panda B5

0.56

Malole creates 159% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 52 away

0.92

creates per match

0.40

0.72

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Malole

0.92

Panda B5

0.40

allows per match

Malole

0.72

Panda B5

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malole+0.00on par

Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malole ↓

Panda B5 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Malole or draw

86%

Malole or Panda B5

73%

Draw or Panda B5

41%

Winning margin

Malole wins by 2+

31%

Panda B5 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Malole 1+ goals

77%

Malole 2+ goals

42%

Malole 3+ goals

18%

Panda B5 1+ goals

43%

Panda B5 2+ goals

11%

Panda B5 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Malole (draw refunded)

81%

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malole at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malole attack 0.92 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.45

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Malole defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Malole scores more

59%

level

27%

Panda B5 scores more

14%

Malole at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Malole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff